Since this all started, I've taken to disconnecting the battery when left for a few hours, no drain.
Have now disconnected the alarm, leaving the battery connected, and get minimal drain, about what you'd expect when the car is left outside in the cold.
So, could well be the alarm. I'm going to reconnect it and check the drain again over the next few days.
You could just actually hook a meter up and measure the battery drain rather than unplug stuff and having to wait overnight, it honestly takes seconds with a meter.